The effects of sea level rise are already being felt along Europe’s coasts, which are also heavily inhabited. Spatial land use planning solutions are becoming more crucial to safeguard coastal towns from damage during high tides or storm surges in addition to conventional, expensive coastal protection measures.
Such planning tools include managed retreat or even the establishment of so-called “setback zones,” coastal areas where further development is restricted.
The first modeling study of its kind in Europe was conducted by a research team from Kiel University to determine how effectively various setback zone designs can lower exposure to future metropolitan areas.
By the year 2100, new urban development in the majority of EU nations could be at least 50% less vulnerable to rising sea levels and associated dangers thanks to the implementation of the most effective setback zones. The findings were just released by the researchers in Scientific Reports.
“Our modeling study is the first of its kind and can help to develop appropriate adaptation measures to protect cities and urban areas along Europe’s coasts,” says first author Dr. Claudia Wolff, a postdoctoral researcher in the Coastal Risks and Sea Level Rise group at the Institute of Geography in the priority research area Kiel Marine Science (KMS) at Kiel University.
The findings indicate that how urban space in EU coastal areas is planned, constructed, and developed will have a significant impact on how coastal towns are exposed to sea level in the future.
“The development of coastal setback zones should consider not only the distance from the coast, but also the elevation of the terrain above sea level. To our knowledge this aspect is currently not being discussed at the European level. We believe by taking this into account, cities and coastal areas can be better protected from the potential risks of rising sea levels in the future,” says Wolff.
Our modeling study is the first of its kind and can help to develop appropriate adaptation measures to protect cities and urban areas along Europe’s coasts.
Dr. Claudia Wolff
Urban development modeled for all EU coastal member states on a country-specific basis
As part of their modeling study, the researchers developed various scenarios to project the urban extent of the low-lying coastal zone below 20 meters above sea level (known as the Extended Low-Elevation Coastal Zone, E-LECZ). This area covers 6.3 percent of the EU coastal states, where 15.1 percent of the urbanized area is currently located.
The research team focused on socio-economic variables, including various setback zone kinds, in addition to the physical aspect of how coastal areas are changing as a result of sea level rise. In doing so, they looked into potential changes to metropolitan areas brought on by increased urban expansion as well as potential changes to Europe’s susceptibility to sea level rise.
For each coastline member state of the EU, the scientists created a country-specific urban development model. The researchers did this by first predicting the potential for urban expansion in each nation based on variables including elevation, population density, and distance from the road network.
In order to develop spatially explicit urban extension estimates with a precision of 100 meters, they first evaluated the future demand for urban land while accounting for numerous socioeconomic factors. These estimates included a variety of setback zones to examine the efficacy of these tools for spatial planning in the face of increasing sea levels.
Further research is needed on a local level
Setback zones are particularly interesting for countries and regions with long coastlines. According to Wolff, not every stretch of coastline can be protected.
More local and detailed studies are needed in the future for concrete planning and decisions. Professor Athanasios Vafeidis, co-author of the study and head of the Coastal Risks and Sea Level Rise research group at Kiel University, is conducting research on this in the EU Horizon 2020 project “Coastal Climate Core Services (CoCliCo).”
“The project aims to better inform decision-makers about adaptation measures for coastal protection and sea level rise,” says Vafeidis.
The CoCliCo project envisions an integrative data service as a pan-European, open, and web-based platform that can be used by governments, NGOs, cities, industries, insurance companies, or private individuals to educate about and take advantage of present and future threats from sea level rise.
