Project Appraisal Procedure
4.1: Bases of Appraisal
A project is a venture for an investment to generate, expand and/or develops certain facilities in order to start the productions of goods and/or services in a group of people during a certain period of time. For the purpose of BSB, project means a scheme for capital investment to develop facilities to provide goods and services. BSB’s main function is to extend financial assistance to industrial project. It basically needs to be satisfied about the overall viability of a project to be financed. For this purpose, an objective assessment of the viability of the project is required to be examined by BSB from various points of view. This is what can be called project appraisal.
The aim of project appraisal is to examine the need, which a project is designed to meet and to judge whether the project is likely to meet this need in an efficient way. Project appraisal provides a rational basis for decision-making. In case of short-term lending, it is not usually necessary to make expensive study of the customer’s future potential. Examination of general creditworthiness of a customer and his current financial position is adequate.
There can be no fixed or standardized approach to project appraisal. Numerous and diverse elements enter into the process of appraisal. It is difficult to have a cut and dried formula with the help of which a proposal for financial assistance can be adjusted straightway as acceptable or unacceptable. While broadly the same set of factors is taken into consideration in the scrutiny of individual applications, the weight age given to the factors varies from project to project. In practice, project appraisal covers five different aspects of a project, viz.
- Management and Organization
- Economic, and
4.2 Management Aspects
An assessment of the promoters in respect of their integrity, experience and capabi1ities to implement and run the project is of prime importance before extending credit facilities to them. There are no set rules to find out if the borrowers or promoters are the men of integrity. It is to be done by direct and indirect investigation. The borrower’s experience .and capabilities can, on the other hand, be assessed in terms of his educational background, special qualifications, practical business experience, receptiveness to new ideas, or good advice, the general reputation and above all his potentiality to learn new things and adaptability to new and changing situation.
The extent to which crucial probing with regard to these aspects may be necessary depends on the type of the project and the background of promoters. If, for example, a project incorporating a relatively complex technique and process is promoted by an entrepreneur with proven abilities and experience, the crucial areas to be probed may be, among others, the competence of the managerial and technical executives likely to be in charge of the project. But if such as the competence and previous experience of the promoter, their collaboration tie-up arrangement, the technical and managerial backing he has already line up, their financial resource, etc. may have to be thoroughly scrutinized.
4.3 Organizational Aspects
Closely related to the management is the type of organizational structure necessary to carry out and operate the project successfully. So far as organization is concerned, there are two basic queries; what organization is needed to bring the project to the operating stage and what organization will be needed thereafter. In the operating phase, one of the most common questions is the extent to which responsibility and authority should be centralized or delegated. The answer depends on the scale of operation, its geographical dispersion, the degree of specialization of personnel, and the number of persons to whom responsibility can be delegated. Internal controls should also be reviewed. These are basic to sound organization. For a management to function efficiently, the organization should be able to provide prompt reports on current performance that can be checked against both past performance and previous projections of future trends so as to bring problems to light as they arise. It is equally important that the organization should be able to put the decisions of management into effect without delay. Besides, sound budget and inventory control are needed.
4.3.1. Credit Investigation
Appraisal of management and organization of project cannot be dined adequately without undertaking methodical credit investigation. The following two broad objectives are intended to be realized through the credit investigation.
- Proper identification of the application, and
- whether they can and will live up to their commitments in a nominal way. Through an organized credit investigation answers to the following specific questions are sought:
Who are the applicants?
What are their present professions or vocations?
Are they persons of proven honesty and recognized integrity?
Are they persons of proven honesty and recognized integrity?
What is the extent of their financial worth?
How much they can and are willing to invest from their own resources?
How far they are capable of implementing and running the project?
4.3.2. Sources of Credit Data
For the purpose of evaluating the credit worthiness of the applicants, particulars and information are necessary about their character (honesty and integrity), capital (properties and possessions), capacity (entrepreneurial and managerial ability), liquidity (cash and nark cash assets), etc. Information necessary for evaluating these traits and qualities can be obtained from a number of Sources. There are several methods like written requests, telephone conversation, meeting information at social gatherings, etc. which may be jointly or severally adopted to obtain the required information. The usual sources of information can be broadly divided into internal sources and external sources. The external sources can again be sub-divided into personal contacts and indirect investigation
4.3.3. Internal Sources
In case the applicants are exiting borrowers of the Bank, the internal records and behavior of respective loan accounts will reveal great deal of information about their bank-ability. Details of past borrowings/equity-support such as amount, date of sanction, amount repaid, amount outstanding and overdue, together with comments on aspects like replacements, moratorium, etc, if any, should be incorporated in the credit report.
4.3.4. External Sources
For the new applicants, the credit investigator has to depend primarily on the external source to verify the statements and declarations made in the loan application. The main external sources are.
- Credit Information Bureau (CIB) Report. If the corn report indicates that the proposed sponsors are defaulters to any Bank/OFI, their proposal should be turned down as per decision of the GOB,
- Interview with the applicants,
- Financial statements, deed and statutory documents, etc.
- Inspection of the applicants, place of business and properties, and
- Other sources like commercial bankers of the applicants, business firms, trade circle, friends and associates, Registrar of join Stock Companies/Firms, District Registrar Sub-registrar, Local periodicals, Government Publications, etc.
4.3.5. Applicants-Their Honesty and Integrity
The main task of the credit investigator is to ascertain the real identity of the applicants with regard to their honesty, integrity and their legal authority to borrow or to raise institutional equity. The starting point for him is the loan application and specifically the declaration of the personal assets of the applicants. On this basis, he should have a threadbare discussion with the applications.
The credit investigator should keep it in mind that the applicants should not only be citizens of Bangladesh, but they must also not be minors, bankrupts or persons of unsound mind. He should also be well aware of the legal status of proprietorship concerns, partnership firms and limited liability companies with regard to membership, capital, objectives, borrowing capacity and tax obligations.
4.3.6. Properties and Possessions of the Applicants
The financial standing of the applicants is judged by means, of direct reference to their movable and immovable properties. The value’ of total assets minus corresponding borrowings, if any, would indicate the net worth. Although the assets free from encumbrances should from the basis of assessing the financial standing, the details of the existing borrowings from different sources should be stated in the credit report to throw light on the borrowings from different sources should be stated in the credit report to throw light on the borrowings habits of the applicants. There are compelling reasons for which the credit investigator has to be satisfied about the ownership and real value of the declared assets.
4.3.7. Liquidity Status of the Applicant(s)
The credit investigator must be satisfied that the applicants are financially capable of undertaking a project of the contemplated size. This calls for determination of the sources and the extent of funds that the applicants are capable of mobilizing and also the extent they are ready to invest. The liquid funds necessary for investment in the project may be mobilized by the applicants from one or more conventional sources.
4.3.8. Capacity of the Applicants
Because of the complexity involved in setting up and ensuring profitable operations of an industrial project, the most important pre-requisite that the Bank expects the applicants to possess is the capability to manage and supervise. The success of a project depends primarily on this trait of the sponsors. Its presence blooms a project and its absence dooms the same. Unfortunately this is most difficult to judge. As indicated in the proceeding paragraph, the entire credit analysis is directed to point up this qualitative characteristic of the sponsors. Individual, capability is reflected in the conglomeration of skill and resourcefulness, education and. experience, age and personal health, etc. The first consideration for the credit investigator is to ascertain how successful the applicants are in their present trade and profession. The second consideration is to judge whether they are financially and managerially competent to undertake implementation of the project. The thing consideration is to forecast ability to run the project successfully upon implementation. Analysis of the past operations, opinion of the commercial bankers, independent opinion from outside sources, etc. would be useful in assessing the capability of the applicants. It may be mentioned here that while “assessing the sponsor’s capability, the following point should be examined.
4.4. Technological Aspects
The technical aspects of in industrial project are appraised to determine whether the project is sound with regard to every engineering and technological consideration, including product specification, process, size, internal balance, suitability and availability of physical facilities, designs and layouts of equipment and buildings etc. In a developing country like Bangladesh, where there is hardly and indigenous technological base to support the industrialization process the industr1al undertakings have to be conceived on the basis of know or borrowed technology until such time as the development of local technology is sufficient.
The second important aspect of technical study includes evaluation of resources to be used for setting up the project as well as operating it subsequently. The physical resources to be used are to be transformed into financial tens. Hence, the task of the engineer is to evaluate quantitatively the resources such as project land, building materials, machinery, equipment, stores and spares, raw materials, labor, power, fuel, etc. Then he is to work out the cost of, these resources. In monetary sense to determine the capital cost of the project and also it’s operating cost after implementation. While evaluating the capital outlay and physical facilities, the engineer will have to determine the production cycle and also the time schedule for implementing the project.
In the case of a project involving technical collaboration or borrowed technology, the project engineer has to examine various facets of technology transplant and its adoption to suit the local conditions including the terms and conditions of technology transfer and financial and economic implications of such transfer of technology. Although basically, technology transfer takes place between two systems, namely, the domestic acquisition system (the sponsors) and the delivery system (foreign collaborations), the development bank which acts as a gate-keeper between the two systems has a vital role to play in determining the suitability of the borrowed technology, the terms and conditions of technology transfer and its impact on the project as a whole. The ultimate aim of project appraisal by a Development bank is to determine the profitability of the project both from commercial and social points of view.
This cannot be undertaken unless through technical studies and cost analysis have been made a related technical problems solved. Thus, the technical studies and cost analysis provided the basis both for the initial estimates of the profitability of an investment during the initial stages and for the final decision to implement the project or not. The technical appraisal, therefore, constitutes the foundation of the entire super-structure of project appraisal.
A development Bank may need to consult or contact with specialized engineering services from outside for specialized matters, particulars relating to projects to be based on complex technology. However good an engineer of Development Bank may be in studies or specific operations, he cannot be expected to be expert in all fields of specialization. This point is of great practical significance while dealing with a project in which the country has no previous experience. In such a situation, particularly in the case of a project involving large capital outlay, it is advisable to find out best advisors (consultants) from outside. For because any defect in the project design and formulation will eventually affect the enterprise adversely.
4.4.1. Basic Aspects of Technical Appraisal
The basic aspects to be analyzed in the course of technical appraisal are –
4.4.1 (A) Preliminary investigation
Skills and technology required for manufacture/ service; and
Testing and analytical report.
4.4.1(B). Selection of production process
Choice of alternative and selection criteria;
Wastage in manufacturing process;
Disposal of wastes and effluents and
Environment and pollution control.
Machinery and equipment for production/service
Productive capacity and efficiency in Site selection
- Technical factors;
- Cost factors of production;
- Marketing factors;
- Administrative and housing factors; and
- Transportation factors.
- Plant and Machinery; and
- Supplementary Installations.
Analysis and evaluation of utilities and supplies
- Raw materials;
- Stores and spares;
- Technical Know-how;
- Transfer of technology;
- Power, Fuel, Water, Steam ere;
- Labor; and
Estimation and evaluation of cost.
4.5. Marketing Appraisal
An industrial project is to bring in some goods ‘or services for a community. But the community does not need them infinitely. Their demand is of course finite and at given prices.
4.5.1. Concept Of Market
Ordinarily, the market means a precise place where commercial transactions occur. In a broader sense, however, it is termed as the sum of contacts between buyers and sellers of a product or service, the price and quantity exchanged of which are detonated by the forces of demand and supply. Market, in this sense, may be formally organized and geographically centered or it may, be either. The market includes the whole environment in which the enterprise is to live and to which it must adapt itself: consumers, suppliers, competitors and all kinds of technical, material, political, legal and administrative restrictions. Market analysis is the first “screening” stage in the project appraisal, at which projects that cannot expect satisfactory market acceptance shall be rejected.
4.5.2. Marketing Plan
a) Marketing Objective:
Marketing plan, as in the case of production and financial plan, should have objective in the backdrop; and the objective is what is wanted to be achieved. The objective may be more than one and quantifiable. For appropriate marketing objective, it is necessary to look at depth into the
- macro/micro demand/ supply situation for specific products in the market.
- existing and expected competition in local and foreign markets,
- market share, etc.
While appraising industrial projects, the Bank is required to analyze these factors and to bring out the objective in quantitative terms.
Identification of the goods or services to be exposed to the environment are to be known before operation. One way of identifying them is in term of their complementarily and Competitiveness. Complementary goods are used together in a single consumption activity. Cameras, films and developing instruments and chemicals constitute a set of such complements. Complementary goods may be sold together or separately.
Another way of distinguishing goods and services is in terms of their consumers. These are: Final goods, Intermediate goods and Investment Goods. Lastly, the goods and services may be either new or existing in the market.
The initial objective of demand analysis is the determination of current effective demand. Effective demand represents the total quantity of a specific product purchased at a given price in a particular market over a given period. The base for estimation is the actual consumption figure during the relevant period.
The equation of apparent consumption is as follows:
C=P+ (M-X) + X
C = Consumption
P = Domestic production
M = Imports
X = Exports
S = Changes in Stock
Once current demand has been estimated for the entire market, it becomes necessary to segment the market to make future projections. Effective market segmentation will therefore:
- help to understand better market behavior and responses,
- enable the concentration of efforts on promising market segments,
- enable the fine tuning of marketing strategy to the needs of target segments,
- increase total sales, reduce costs and step up profits.
Market can also be segmented as follows-
a) Consumer Markets
- Administrative regions
- Geographic regions
- Rural-district cut-size.
- Income (level, dynamics, distribution)
- Occupation – education
- Family size
- Income elasticity of demand
- Prices and availability of complimentary goods
- Govt. policies – nationality
- Social class
Personality and behavior:
- Life style
- Buying motive – loyalty
- Extroversion and introversion
- Service sensitivity and introversion – service sensitivity
- Promotional sensitivity
b) Industrial Markets:
Number and types of industrial users:
- Age of equipment
- Regional concentration
- Vertical vs. horizontal markets- technological progress.
- Number of employees
- Number of employees
The market analysts should collect and analyze the following data for export market:
- Names of the countries to which the product will be exported
- How these countries are at present meeting their demand. If through import, what are the countries of their origin?
- Time series data regarding export and import.
Characteristics of Specific Intermediaries (Exporter, Importer):
- General description of types available
- Contacts in export market
- Marketing tasks they are able and prepare to carry.
Transport and Insurance:
- Traditional transportation means
- Costs of freight and insurance – timing of delivery
- Delivery terms, DIF, FOB, etc.
- Tariffs and fees
- Non-tariff barriers
- Quality standards
- Health, medical and safety requirements
- Package standards
- Import quotas
- Customs regulations
- Political and administrative barriers:
- Trading habit
- Comparative advantage
Terms and conditions of sales and distribution arrangement
Export incentive available
Past export trend/ performance of the product(s)
4.5.4. Supply analysis:
Local producer’s past and present output, together with capacity utilization review provides a convenient departure point for an analysis of supply situation and outlook, which combined with demand estimates, will determine the project’s position in the market and thus expected.
Compared with the variety of methods applicable for demand forecasting, projecting the future supply position in the market is a rather unassuming task. Availability of the production in the market is a function of:
- domestic producers present and projected capacities
- new projects being under construction present and projected export volume
- foreign manufacturer’ capacities, marketing strategies and development plans,
- government policies.
4.5.5. Supply Gap:
Considering the future demand for the product and total potential supply of the same, the analyst should, estimate the projected supply gap. It is to be examined how the supply gap justifies the setting up of the project under consideration.
4.5.6. Market Share:
Having estimated the supply gap, the market analyst should calculate the project’s contribution towards the reduction of this gap. In fact, market share is the marketing objective.
4.5.7. Marketing Information
The procedure of market analysis, outlined above, call for systematic collection of information about the market for the goods and services to be considered. Some of this information is quantitative while other is qualitative.
4.5.8. Quantitative Information
The following quantitative information is to be collected in physical on a national basis:
For international comparison, such data for comparable foreign countries are also to be collected.
- Number of productive units
- Distribution of productive units by location.
- Installed production capacity.
- Distribution of population by age, sex, marital status, religion, literacy, income, occupation and region.
- Average size of a family
- Rate of population growth
- Rate of organization.
The following quantitative data, express in terms of value, are also be collected on a national basis:
- F.G.B. price of exports
- C.LF. price of imports.
- Ex-factory price of products and services.
- Wholesale price annual average.
- Consumer’s price index
- Cost of living
- Customs duty.
- V A T.
- Import license fee.
The above quantitative data should be collected for several years in the past so as to constitute historical series.
4.5.9. Qualitative Information:
The qualitative information, which may be required for market analysis, is:
- Location information-Transport and communication facilities, water and power facilities, nearness to the market, etc.
- Possibilities of continued supply of inputs.
- Attitude of customers.
- Climatic characteristics.
- Methods of distribution-market and non-market
- Government policies:
(a) Economic Development objectives. (b) Health and safety standards.
(c) Investment/International policy. (d) Taxation policy.
(e) Export policy. (f) Monetary policy.
(g) Labor policy. (h) Others, if any
4.6. Economic Appraisal
In economic appraisal, the project is looked at from the national or social point of view and the economic cash flow is constructed on the basis of “true or real prices”, commonly known as accounting or shadow prices.
Economic analysis of a project aims at determining whether that project is consistent with overall national and sector- wise objectives. whether the investment proposed is the best means of achieving the intended objectives. It involves a systematic evaluation of a range of options for achieving the intended objectives. Allocating resources to a sector or specific purposes reduce the resources available for other sectors and purposes. Therefore, it is essential that the allocation of investment resources be efficient among sectors. Economic appraisal is the primary means of determining whether a proposed investment is worthwhile. It should determine whether a project is acceptable and, if it is, whether it is the best alternative.
Economic appraisal should cover both quantifiable and non-quantifiable benefits (where applicable). Such benefits are described ad-seriatim.
4.6.1. Quantifiable Benefits:
Following are the quantifiable benefits of economic appraisal:
(a) Economic Rate of Return (ERR),
(b) Bruno Ratio/ Domestic Resource Cost,
(c) Contribution of Gross Domestic Product, and
(d) Employment Generation and Cost per employment.
(a) Economic Rate of Return (ERR):
ERR measures the potential earning power of the social resources used in the project and thus help the assessment of investment proposal. It is worked out at which the present value of costs becomes equal to the present value of benefits. Net present value (NPV) is the net value or net benefit of a project when all costs have been discounted to the present at the accounting rate of interest.
After working out the ERR, it should be compared with the Accounting Rate of Interest (ARI).The ARI is nothing but the opportunity cost of capital which is supposed to maximize the use and productivity of invest-able resources in the country. The broad decision criterion is that, other things being equal, the project whose ERR is less than the ARI should ordinarily be rejected unless other unquantifiable benefits are adequate or the project can be qualitatively justified: Determining the opportunity cost of capital for a society is difficult, but economists generally consider it to be 15 percent in most developing countries. The planning Commission of Bangladesh has estimated the ARI at O. 15 (or 15 percent).
(b) Bruno Ratio/ Domestic Resource Cost (DRC):
An industrial project will either be import substitute or export oriented or combination of both in nature. In developing country, development of industrial projects, normally involves substantial amount of scarce foreign exchange. On the basis of more absolute amount of saving and/or earning of foreign exchange of an investment proposal, the optimal allocation of scarce resources (both domestic and external) may not be achieved, the implicit foreign exchange. In other words it indicates the domestic resource cost involved in foreign exchange to be saved/ earned by a project.
The domestic resource cost (DRC) involved in saving/ earning foreign exchange by a project is normally worked out by dividing the real domestic cost in Taka by real net foreign exchange to be saved/ earned. It is normally expressed as Taka cost per unit off foreign exchange (i.e. $ or) saved/ earned i.e. the amount of Taka required to save earn a Dollar or Pound Sterling. If domestic resources are expressed in domestic currency and foreign exchange is expressed in dollars, a DRC of less than the (Shadow) exchange rate is considered quite acceptable.
(c) Contribution To Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
Contribution to GDP of a project is estimated from sales value and inter-firm transactions. Data regarding sales value is taken from the calculation of sales estimate of the financial appraisal. Sales value of fourth year is taken. Similarly data estimate of the financial appraisal. Similarly, data relating to inter-firm transaction of fourth year is collected from the calculation sheet of cost of goods sold and General Administration and selling expenses of the financial appraisal.
(d) Employment Generation And Cost Per Employment:
The number of full-time and part-time jobs measured in man-years expected to be created both during construction and during operation of the project should be estimated separately. If data are available, these estimates should be related to Regional, sectoral and national levels of unemployment and under employment. Where possible, the degree of labor intensiveness (i.e. the number of workers employed per unit of investment) of the project should also be estimated.
4.6.2. Non-quantifiable/ Intangible Benefits/ Externalities:
The term non-quantifiable refers both (1) to effects that are known to arise but which cannot be measured in physical terms and (2) to effects, which cannot be valued. Difficulties in quantification and valuation will often go together. Quantification problems often are data problem a certain effect could not be measured, but has not been.
4.7. Financial Appraisal
The main purpose of financial appraisal is to assess if the proposed project is viable in term of its operation in the future years and its financial soundness. The financial analyst should have a clear idea as to what is intended to be achieved through the financial appraisal. The financial appraisal is directed to examine mainly the following two aspects:
(a) Fund requirement to bring the project in to existence and the probable sources from which the required funds will be mobilized; and
(b) Prospects of adequate revenue generation by the project when it goes into operation and the likely position of the concern with regard to its actual cash generation (liquidity) and its probable impact upon the financial condition (solvency).
The first aspect deals with the estimation of total of the project (fixed cost + net working capital) and a suitable financial arrangement (debt-equity relation). The second aspect relates to the analysis of production-cost profit at different volume of production carried up to the year the project attains its normal capacity operation.
4.7.1. Cost of The Project
The cost of a project represents all capital expenditure to be incurred for acquisition of its fixed assets plus the net contribution of long-term resources in the proposed current assents. In other words, the fixed cost of the project plus the net (or permanent) working capital requirement to run the project will comprise its total cost.
4.7.2. Fixed Cost of The Project
The requirement of physical assets for a project is essentially an engineering estimate. The analyst should, however, recheck the various cost items detailed in the fixed cost statement given in the technical report. The idea is to see that all costs are included and the cost estimates are realistic. The analyst should go through item by item and also look in to their ramification. Individual item of tangible assets will have a required quantity (Q) and a price (P). The Q indicates any quantity in area, number, volume, or any other suitable unit of measurement. The P indicates the price for a specific unit of Q. The fixed cost of a project is the aggregate of cost of land, building construction, plant, and machinery and equipments preliminary and are expenses (capitalized) and a margin for contingencies (any or may not be considered).
4.7.3. Working Capital
Apart from investment in the fixed assets, liquid funds are, necessary for investment in current assets like stocks of ram materials, good-in-process, finished goods, ‘stores and spares, debtors, etc. The portion of fund, which remains invested in current assets of a concern, is called its working capital. Such assets are characterized by their tangibility and short-liveliness. It is worthwhile to mention here that Bangladesh Bank issues some policy guidelines from time to time as to what will be the tied up period while calculating working capital requirement pending on the nature of the project, which should be followed during appraisal.
4.7.4. Means of Finance
A project may be financed in the following two ways:
- The entire finance may be provided by the sponsors; or
- Part of the finance may be provided by the sponsors and the rest by the Creditors.
The following are the usual sources of funds:
(a) Equity Capital
- Paid-up share capital;
- Reserves and surplus (for an existing concern); ,
- Retained Earnings (for an existing concern); and
- Other sources such as loans from Directors, friends, relatives, associates, etc.
(b) Loan Capital:
- Long-term borrowings (both secured and unsecured); and
- Interest During Construction Period (IDCP).
4.7.5. Analysis of Financial Statement
Proper interpretation of data presented by financial statements helps in;
– Judging the profitability of operation during the past periods;
– Indicating the trends which may reveal future probabilities;
– Determining the financial condition at a specified date
– Predicting the future ability to meet the existing or anticipated credit obligations;
– Judging the capability of the management in meeting the changing conditions arising out of implementation of the proposed project or on-set of a bad business time.
After estimating the cost of the project, means of finance, sales and cost of sale, the financial statements of an existing concern should be analyzed through calculation of a number of financial ratios.
4.7.6. Ratio Analysis
Despite various approaches to financial analysis, the ratios can be classified into the following four fundamental categories:
- Liquidity Rations (These are also called Loan Safety Ratios);
- Leverage Ratios
- Activity Rations (Management Efficiency Ratios);and
- Profitability Ratios.
Liquidity Ratios are designed to measure the ability of the concern to meet its immediate and maturing debt obligations.
Leverage Rations measure the extent of funds contributed by the owners of the project as capital compared to the funds provided by its long-term creditors.
Activity Ratios measure how effectively the project is employing its resources.
Profitability Ratios show the management’s overall effectiveness as revealed by the returns generated on sales and investment.
4.7.7. Financial Projections
Financial projections are final translation of plan for a project in monetary terms. In other words, projections reflect in concrete terms the anticipation of the analyst regarding the future income and expenditure and their probable impact upon the assets, liabilities and equity of a proposed project. Through financial projections, answers are sought to the following questions:
- What it should cost to produce and sell the product? and
- What it should sell for?
The third basic requirement of financial projections is a suitable technique for calculation and presentation. The analyst will have to utilize his knowledge of accounting. The financial projections are prepared and presented within the accounting framework. The quality of the projections would, therefore, depend upon the analyst’s knowledge of accounting. The financial projections involve working out the following three interrelated statements for a number of years in respect of a project:
- Forecast of earnings this will measure the cost of production and profitability;
- Fund flow statement which will indicate major or prominent fund inflows and outflows;
- projected Balance Sheets which will depict the capital structure and assets spread at the and of periods used in (i) and (ii) above.
4.7.9. Cost of Production
Once the computation of future sales is completed, the next step .is to calculate the relevant cost of sales. This process involves preparation of some sort of expenses budgets for the relevant years for which sales have been calculated. All the expenses can be broadly divided into the following three categories:
- Cost of goods sold;
- General, Administrative and selling expenses; and
- Financial expenses.
Findings and Conclusion
- The main intention of BSB is to stimulate industrialization throughout the country.
- The nature of credit exemplifies that it mainly grants term loan.
- Political intermission matters in sanctioning loan
- Lengthy procedure and long time (more than three months) involved in the appraisal of project.
- Role of BSB is highest in the industrialization of Bangladesh though there’s some problem.
- Lack of enthusiasm amongst the employees to dedicate themselves for bank because of absence of performance related pay.
- Inadequate attention is paid to analyze risk and uncertainties associated with the projects, means only sensitivity analysis is done to analyze risk.
- Too little attention to social cost and benefits.
- At times improper feasibility reports are submitted by sponsors, which do not contain adequate and reliable information.
- There is no arrangement of accountability of the appraisal team if the approved project fails due to their inappropriate appraisal.
- Some feel the absence of an up-to-date project appraisal manual. The present manual was designed 20 years ago.
- Unstable policy of management due to political changes over time.
- If bank makes the procedure of keeping up-do-date information but in some case there some case of rescheduling the total procedure is reversed so it’s high to maintain current and updated system of accounting.
Bangladesh Shilpa Bank (BSB) has played pioneer role in the industrial sector of the country. From its inception it has sponsored thousands of projects. The prominent group of industries of today are the borrowers of BSB. If truth be told, BSB is the founder of the industrial sector of Bangladesh. Although it seems to be astounding, it is a matter of delight that BSB is still making profit from the recovery of loan. Currently it grants loan to few projects. Rather it emphasizes on heightening the recovery from the project that it has already financed. Other than recovery it is operating as a commercial bank up to a limited extent. BSB has as qualified human resources, plenty of physical assets, trustworthy clientele, and reliable sources of fund to carry out as a leader in financing in the industrial segment. But like all other state owned enterprises (SOEs) it suffers from the bureaucratic problem. Directors approach mainly from the ministries. They do not posses ownership in the bank like the directors of private organizations. They just play their role like a typical government employee. But in an open market economy and in the age of globalization and capitalism it is very difficult to survive for such an SOE. It is believed that government cannot do business in a borderless economy. So the main problem stems from the ownership structure. For coming out of the present condition it is necessary to turning BSB into a public limited company offloading shares. Inefficient employees can be laid off through golden handshake. It ought to be done only to benefit BSB itself, its clientele and the industrial sector as a whole nor merely to comply with the prescription of our so called development partners. I think a revived BSB can play noteworthy role in financing our industrial sector which is as completely a sick sector in terms of its contribution to the gross domestic product (GDP).