Elon Musk, Tesla’s CEO, claims that Optimus, the company’s robot, will be “worth more than the vehicle industry, worth more than FSD.” Tesla’s advanced driver assistance system, or “full self-driving,” uses cameras and computer vision technologies to execute certain autonomous driving functions. Tesla owners will pay around $12,000 for an FSD membership, or up to $199 each month. Tesla is still working on its robot, according to the CEO during the company’s first-quarter 2022 earnings call. Optimus was initially shown off in August 2021 during Tesla’s first AI Day.
The 5’8″ robot will be powered by Tesla’s neural networks and Dojo’s sophisticated supercomputer, and Musk envisions it doing duties that would normally be considered human drudgery, such as grocery shopping and other mundane tasks. So far, we’ve only seen a human in a white spandex jumpsuit representing the bot concept. Musk announced a new wave of goods, including Optimus, in 2023 during the launch of Tesla’s Austin gigafactory earlier this month. At Wednesday’s earnings conference, Musk remarked, “I was astonished that people didn’t appreciate the enormity of the Optimus robot program.”
“In the following years, the significance of Optimus will become clear. Those who are perceptive or listen closely will realize that Optimus will be worth more than the automobile industry, worth more than FSD.” We’re not saying this is nonsense, but it seems unlikely that Tesla will be able to bring a robot like this to market any time soon. Other corporations have been attempting to develop humanoid robots to replace humans for years, and we haven’t heard a peep about why this would work for Tesla, especially given Musk’s tight timeline.
After all, it took Boston Dynamics 25 years of concentrated study to develop Atlas, and other manufacturers like Honda, Toyota, and General Motors have also introduced robot designs in recent years that have landed on their feet. What gives? First, there’s the question of whether or not a humanoid robot is the most efficient approach to automate. Then there’s the cost and scale issue. Who is the intended audience for a robot that will relieve humans of their drudgery?
Those who are now working in the trenches, those who do not have enough money to outsource activities like washing or food shopping, are the apparent answer. A Roomba alone might cost up to $900. Will Tesla be able to quickly scale their robot to the point where it costs less than $10,000 per unit? Most likely not.
