The most recent nonfarm payrolls report shows that while the unemployment rate in the United States increased in May, it decreased for Hispanic employees.
Last month, the overall jobless rate increased by 0.3 percentage points to 3.7%. The U.S. Department of Labor said on Friday (June 02, 2023) that the jobless rate for Hispanic or Latina women dropped to 3.4% last month from 4.1% in April, a decrease of 0.7 percentage points. The unemployment rate for Hispanic men ticked lower to 4% from 4.1% in April. Overall, the unemployment rate among Latinos decreased to 4% in May from 4.4% in the prior month.
“This is a historic low,” said Carmen Sanchez Cumming, a research associate at the Washington Center for Equitable Growth, of the overall decline in the Hispanic unemployment rate. “The only other time that it’s been this level was in November 2022 and September of 2019 … For both Hispanic workers and for Black workers, at least in the first half of 2023, this recovery has been especially strong.”
Meanwhile, unemployment for Black workers overall rose 0.9 percentage points to 5.6% in May from 4.7% in April. Among Black men, the rate was 5.6% in May, compared to 4.5% in April. The unemployment rate also ticked higher for Black women, rising to 5.3% in May from April’s rate of 4.4%.
The longer-term trend suggests that the Black unemployment rate has been coming down. So it’s about where it was three months ago. Yes, it was lower last month. It ticked up, but I think that probably it will resolve down again next month.
Elise Gould
“Economic research and empirical data shows that for Hispanic workers and for Black workers, their outcomes are much more sensitive to fluctuations in the business cycle,” Cumming said. “So, when the labor market is really strong, Latino workers and Black workers benefit disproportionately, but when the labor market is weak, Black and Latino workers are hurt disproportionately, too.”
Monthly volatility vs. longer-term trends
The payroll survey of employers and the household survey are the two surveys that make up the monthly jobs report. There is a lot of volatility on a monthly basis that comes into play when looking at smaller demographic groups in the household survey, Cumming warned.
That volatility is the big story in the May jobs report, said Elise Gould, senior economist at the Economic Policy Institute.
“It’s important when we look at something like that to pay attention to the longer-term trend, because every month there can be a lot of movement,” Gould said.
“The longer-term trend suggests that the Black unemployment rate has been coming down,” she added. “So it’s about where it was three months ago. Yes, it was lower last month. It ticked up, but I think that probably it will resolve down again next month.”
The labor force participation rate for the overall population held at 62.6% in May. This metric measures the percentage of people who are either working or actively seeking employment. For Black men, the labor force participation rate ticked up to 68.2%, an increase from 67.8% in April. For Black women, the rate held steady at 63.9%.
Meanwhile, the labor force participation rate for Hispanic men was 79.5% in May, up from 78.9% in April. The rate stayed the same for Hispanic women at 61.2%.
