While both climate change and volcanic eruptions are significant phenomena with far-reaching consequences, there is currently little scientific agreement on a direct causal relationship between the two. It is critical to differentiate between the effects of climate change on the Earth’s climate system and the factors that cause volcanic eruptions.
Since Pompeii was buried in 79 A.D., scientists have studied volcanic disasters, leading the public to believe that scientists already know why, where, when, and how long volcanoes will erupt. But, according to Jonathan Fink, a volcanologist and the director of PSU’s Digital City Testbed Centre, these fundamental questions remain unanswered. Fink and Idowu “Jola” Ajibade, an associate professor of Geography, recently published an article on how climate change will affect the societal effects of volcanic eruptions. Their work is part of a novel 33-paper collection in the Bulletin of Volcanology, co-edited by Fink, that attempts to track the evolution of the entire field of volcanology over the last several decades.
“The public rarely thinks about how science changes – we learn odd facts from classes or news stories, but assume that the overall knowledge stays relatively constant. The reality is quite different,” Fink said. “Volcano science advances steadily, in step with technological progress. But it also can change immediately and radically, in response to unusually large or impactful eruptions.”
Sea-level rise, glacial melting, aquifer depletion, and mountain erosion can all affect the likelihood and frequency of volcanic eruptions. As the severity of climate impacts on society grows, the search for ‘geoengineering’ solutions will increase the likelihood that countries will consider volcano-mimicking interventions, such as injecting aerosols into the stratosphere to cool the Earth’s surface.
Jonathan Fink
Consider the 1980 eruption of Mount St. Helens in Washington, which taught the world about catastrophic volcanic landslides and blasts, or Campi Flegrei in Naples, Italy, which is threatening to erupt explosively at any time. Geologists thought the earth’s crust behaved like a solid layer with isolated pools of molten magma in 1980. Today, we know it’s more like a complex mush, making predicting when large volcanoes will erupt much more difficult.
“Governments forecast what might happen next based on past experience.” However, because volcanoes can be dormant for centuries, the policy toolbox “may be relatively empty or outdated,” according to Fink. “This collection of papers, and the scientific symposia on which they are based, focus not only on the ingredients in the box of volcano knowledge, but also on how new ideas are added over the course of decades.” We examined how current knowledge about how volcanoes work has been assembled from dozens of different perspectives, which helps us predict how it will change in the future.”
Understanding how volcano activity may change over time is particularly important as climate change continues to have direct and indirect effects on how volcanoes behave.
“Sea-level rise, glacial melting, aquifer depletion, and mountain erosion can all affect the likelihood and frequency of volcanic eruptions,” he explained. “As the severity of climate impacts on society grows, the search for ‘geoengineering’ solutions will increase the likelihood that countries will consider volcano-mimicking interventions, such as injecting aerosols into the stratosphere to cool the Earth’s surface. Volcano scientists will have to advise policymakers on the specifics of how such events are likely to unfold.”
The Pacific Northwest has the most potential natural and man-made disasters in North America, according to Fink, and their frequency and overlap have only increased in the last 20 years.
“This region is characterized by volcanic eruptions of different scales and types, catastrophic subduction zone earthquakes, mega-wildfires that can wipe out cities, wildfire smoke events that can make our air unbreathable, tsunamis that can drown coastal communities, landslides that can shut down transportation corridors, floods that can inundate cities, and heat dome events that can kill thousands of individuals,” he said.
Fink and Ajibade’s research shows that the likelihood of volcanic eruptions coinciding with climate-related storms, droughts, floods, or other disasters is increasing, making crisis planning and response more difficult.
“These types of ‘cascading’ or ‘compound’ disasters present significant challenges for public officials and university faculty attempting to train future volcano scientists,” Fink said. “Rather than focusing solely on one aspect of volcanology, such as volcanic gases, volcanic earthquakes, or lava flows, future volcano scientists will need to know at least a little bit about a plethora of other fields, such as social science, public health, and communication.”
