Long-term fertility trends have been linked to education and family planning. However, new research examines these aspects to discover what causes a fall in otherwise high-fertility countries. The widespread use of contraception and, to a lesser extent, girls’ education until the age of 14 have the biggest impact on lowering a country’s fertility rate.
Long-term fertility trends have been linked to education and family planning. However, new research from the University of Washington examines these elements to identify what causes a fall in otherwise high-fertility countries.
Daphne Liu, a doctorate student in statistics at the UW, and Adrian Raftery, a UW professor of statistics and sociology, investigate two subtle concerns in an article published in Population and Development Review: Is it more effective in family planning to increase contraceptive use or to decrease demand? Is it the number of years girls attend a school or the total number of children enrolled in a school that makes education a role in fertility?
“Policymakers in nations with high fertility rates are frequently interested in speeding fertility reduction because rapid population expansion can have a number of unintended economic, environmental, and public health effects,” Liu explained. “Policies that enhance access to education and family planning are widely regarded to hasten fertility reduction by enabling individuals, particularly girls and women, to pursue their own life goals. Our research will look into which parts of a country’s education and family planning have the greatest influence on fertility decline.”
Policies that enhance access to education and family planning are widely regarded to hasten fertility reduction by enabling individuals, particularly girls and women, to pursue their own life goals. Our research will look into which parts of a country’s education and family planning have the greatest influence on fertility decline.
Daphne Liu
As the world’s population grows to 10.9 billion by 2100, much of it is likely to occur in high-fertility countries such as Latin America, Asia, and Sub-Saharan Africa. The Sustainable Development Objectives of the United Nations recognize the importance that sustainable fertility may play in a country’s environmental, economic, and demographic health, as well as the ways that family planning can help individuals achieve their own fertility goals.
Fertility rates beyond the “replacement rate” of 2.1 births per woman can stretch a country’s available resources, while fertility rates below the “replacement rate” of 2.1 births per woman can lead to a long-term lack of economic growth. The global fertility rate of 2.5 births per woman today is down from 3.2 in 1990, however, it is higher in sections of the world where certain countries have fertility rates of at least 4 births per woman.
The study by Liu and Raftery combines UN statistics on reproduction rates since 1970 with data on education and contraception to discover which factors have the biggest impact. All of the countries in their study sample were classified as migrating downward, albeit slowly, from a high fertility phase.
Liu and Raftery examined two factors in the category of family planning over time: contraceptive prevalence, which is the percentage of women who use modern contraception, and unmet need, which is the percentage of women who say they want to delay or stop childbearing but are not using contraception. While the difference between the two metrics appears to be minor, Liu pointed out that unmet need can indicate notional interest in family planning, whereas contraceptive prevalence reflects real use. The prevalence of contraception had a substantially bigger effect, according to the study.
Data from El Salvador, for example, demonstrate that the correlation between increased contraceptive use and a corresponding drop in fertility rate is particularly apparent. The total fertility rate in the country fell from 5.44 births per woman in the mid-1970s, when 28 percent of women used birth control, to 2.72 births in the mid-2000s, when contraceptive prevalence had more than doubled.
Liu and Raftery also intended to investigate the impact of education on fertility trends. They looked at two different components of education, both of which are linked to cultural values and economic outcomes: school enrollment and the greatest level of education that girls normally achieve. The latter is a result of academic and professional options offered to women and girls, which may influence their childbearing decisions. The former has been postulated to have an impact on fertility because as more children attend school, it becomes more expensive to raise them, perhaps discouraging families from having additional children.
Liu and Raftery discovered that education influenced fertility primarily through the educational attainment of girls, particularly in their early adolescence (the “lower secondary” level of schooling). Completing at least the lower secondary level, which is often regarded as the final stage of basic education, had a bigger effect on fertility drop than completing merely elementary schooling.
Kenya had a significant growth in females’ educational achievement, with 59 percent attaining the lower secondary level in the mid-2010s, up from 12 percent in the mid-1970s. Kenya’s contraceptive prevalence increased consistently, from 5% to 51%, while the overall fertility rate fell from 7.64 births per woman to 4.06.
Nonetheless, of the two forces – family planning and education – family planning was more important in hastening the change. “It’s crucial to understand why family planning is so important,” Raftery added. “However, both elements are crucial and work in tandem. Education provides women with additional alternatives to having large families, while family planning provides them with the tools to attain their goals.”
Overall, fertility decreased in Sub-Saharan Africa, where the highest-fertility countries are located, albeit at a slower rate than in other high-fertility parts of the world. This could be related to economic progress, cultural ideals surrounding family size, and educational quality. According to the researchers, politicians and non-governmental organizations (NGOs) should continue to focus on education, as well as the availability and acceptance of contraceptives for women, in accordance with the UN Sustainable Development Goals.
