According to new research, changing weather patterns caused by climate change are leading to variations in terrorist activity locations. An exploratory study lead by extremism expert Dr. Jared Dmello of the University of Adelaide’s School of Social Sciences discovered that several climatological variables influenced terrorist activity in India.
“Suitability analyses indicate that all the climatological variables tested — temperature, precipitation, and elevation — relate to shifting patterns of terrorist activity,” Dr. Dmello states.
“Urban centres have increasingly grown in population density, particularly in spaces with favourable climates, and some of the more remote areas once used by extremists have experienced such increasingly dynamic climates that they are no longer fit for human habitation, forcing these groups to migrate elsewhere.”
Terrorists moved to different locations not only due to the intensity of these climatological variables, but also because of seasonal shifts in terrorist activity.
This research shows that stopping the damaging effects of climate change is not just an environmental issue, but one that is directly linked to national security and defense.
Dr. Dmello
“This research shows that stopping the damaging effects of climate change is not just an environmental issue, but one that is directly linked to national security and defense,” says Dr. Dmello, who was recently named the Academy of Criminal Justice Sciences’ Security and Crime Prevention Section’s inaugural Early Career Award winner.
“In this study, we focus on attack location, but the data also suggests other forms of extremist behaviour, such as training location, are likely shifting in response to climate change as well.”
The study, published in the Journal of Applied Security Research, focused on terrorist activity in India from 1998 to 2017, during which time the Global Terrorism Database reported 9096 terrorist attacks.
“Average temperatures in India reached record highs during our 20-year study period,” said Dr Dmello.
“This time frame represents a broad enough range to demonstrate climate change, while also availing of the most recent reliable data that covers both the climate change and extremism dimensions for the country.”
This new and expanding understanding of how climate change influences terrorism trends is critical for governments around the world, including Australia, as it informs national security and defence strategy.
“While terrorism and violent extremism manifests differently in Australia, with far lower levels of attacks than India, radicalisation is still a salient challenge here and one that the Australian Government has established as a national priority,” says Dr. Dmello.
“To effectively mitigate radicalisation, other critical issues, such as homelessness, food insecurity, water and energy crises, and enhanced social equity, are essential for ensuring a more secure space for us all.”
Dr Dmello, who joined the University of Adelaide at the beginning of 2024, also recently co-edited a book examining security in the Arctic from a multi-disciplinary lens and will continue his research into terrorism and extremism in the Australian context.
“Some of my recent projects have been trying to understand how emerging issues impact radicalisation here in Australia in an effort to find ways to partner with government and law enforcement to prevent engagement with extremist ideologies,” he says.
“I am also interested in expanding on my research in this area to investigate the role of water and food inequities on radicalisation around the world.”
